If Global Trade Breaks, It’s Worse Than 2008 | Ed Conway

What happens if the invisible system feeding and fuelling our planet suddenly breaks down? In this episode of The Master Investor Podcast, Wilfred Frost sits down with Ed Conway, Economics & Data Editor at Sky News and bestselling author of Material World and Trade World. Drawing on Ed’s latest book, Trade World, they explore the enormous importance - and growing fragility - of global trade, and why the hyper-efficient, just-in-time supply chains that have delivered decades of cheap goods are increasingly vulnerable to tariffs, geopolitical friction and war. Ed offers some stark warnings about what could happen if the global trading system begins to break down: “So if we were to have a kind of breakdown in global trading system, God forbid, it would make the Global Financial Crisis look like a walk in the park because this is everything.” And, looking at the growing tensions between major powers: “It's not implausible that if things go south from here, people will look back and say this was the foothills for another world war.” At the same time, the fact that the stakes are so high and the world is so integrated encourages him that the cost of escalating conflicts and diminishing trade would far outweigh the upside for world leaders. He also unpacks the ingenuity of trade middlemen who have ensured a resilience to world trade such that while oil prices have risen this year, they haven’t risen as much as worst estimates. “Trade doesn't just stop when a trade barrier is put in place. It adapts and it evolves - it’s like water - it’s very difficult to stop it from finding a level.” They also explore why established industries so often push back against new technologies and innovation; the extraordinary moment in history when technological progress delivered an even greater economic transformation than AI; and why global yields have reached multi-decade highs, how hedge funds are driving the gilt market, and the mechanics behind ending QT. #EdConway ’s new book, Trade World, is available now in the UK and will be released in the US next May. 0:00 Intro 3:21 Why high bond yields? 8:08 QT arrives in UK 13:55 TRADE WORLD 20:03 Wool & Cotton – AI of their day 24:25 Opposition to innovation 30:56 Cotton – greater exponential growth than AI 37:10 Russia biggest exporter of grains 40:00 Protectionism not new 46:39 Fragile or Resilient global economy? 51:48 Recession chances 54:06 Foothills of WW3? 59:30 Wonders of world trade For more content like this, subscribe to The Master Investor Podcast Youtube Channel - @themasterinvestorpodcast And follow @WilfredFrost on X - https://x.com/wilfredfrost?lang=en And Linked In - LinkedIn: wilfred-frost-279667374 Sponsored by BNY Investments, World Gold Council, London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG) and Interactive Brokers - ibkr.com/masterinvestor. The Master Investor Podcast is produced by Paradine Productions and Master Investor Ltd in association with Bird Lime Media. This podcast is for information purposes only. It does not constitute an invitation or inducement to engage in any investment activity. It is not a financial promotion as defined under section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (FSMA). The views expressed by the presenter of this podcast are those of the presenter and are provided in the course of journalism. This podcast benefits from the exemption under Article 20 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005 (FPO), It does not require approval by a person authorised under the FSMA. Generic information, not identifying any specific investment, fund, provider or service, about a class of investments such as shares, bonds, derivatives and cryptoassets, might be provided and/or discussed during this podcast. Such discussion falls within the generic promotions exemption (Article 17 of the FPO). Such discussion is not a financial promotion requiring approval by an authorised person under section 21 of the FSMA. Investing involves risk. You should consult a suitably qualified adviser who can assess your individual circumstances before making any investment decision