China's Economy is Broken | Logan Wright

Comments · 348

• CH

  @ChinaTalkMedia · 2 days ago · pinned

  There’s more free content on the ChinaTalk Substack! We publish weekly articles about AI, semiconductors, US-China relations, and more. Check it out now: <a href="https://chinatalk.substack.com/">https://chinatalk.substack.com/</a>

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• ME

  @medicsansgarantee · 1 day ago

  China collapsing since &nbsp;2000 BC

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• PE

  @Peter-w4j9z · 12 hours ago (edited)

  <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IdLPBmtY5ZE&amp;t=1363">00:22:43</a>: Logan Wright introduces the topic of how China became a dominant force in global metals and minerals processing<br>cheap credit<br><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IdLPBmtY5ZE&amp;t=1407">23:27</a> role of cheap power/energy in metallurgy

• PE

  @Peter-w4j9z · 12 hours ago

  <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IdLPBmtY5ZE&amp;t=354">5:54</a> after the global financial crisis (2008), China saw the largest single country credit expansion that the world has seen in at least the last century, possibly many centuries. China added a third of global GDP to its bank assets in just 8 years. And we&apos;ve never seen anything remotely like this.<br><br>First, there was an deliberate attempt to provide this sort of credit expansion to provide counter cyclical policy support in the response the global financial crisis. But the extension of it after that was essentially a form of path dependence. Growth was strong. It was dependent upon investment and then it became too difficult for authorities to shut down without imperiling uh the overall economy. <br><br>So much for the feasibility of the Kenesian economy ... it does not match with capitalism, neither democratic capitalism in Europe nor totalitarian capitalism in China.

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• DE

  @desousarolandoeduardo5749 · 1 day ago

  Whether China&apos;s economy is bad or not isn&apos;t something you can just sit there and spout nonsense about. It&apos;s what people living there tell you, based on their experience of our economy, our lives, and how we&apos;re doing. It&apos;s not something you can just spout off and say, &quot;The economy is bad, so what?&quot; Many tourists go to China; ask them if the Chinese economy is bad.

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• HA

  @hatac · 1 day ago

  I&apos;m a geographer that can&apos;t travel much so I watch lots of road trip video&apos;s. One thing I notice from China is that there is food and firewood everywhere. Crops on road verges. A years fire wood leaning against a 300 year old house or a new 3 story building. There is no way that elderly granny gathered that wood or planted those crops. There are probably a lot of people doing off books work across the country. It&apos;s probably not paid for with Yuan. How much is barter, WeChat, Bitcoin, an off book Altcoin or L.E.T.S? How much of the Chinese economy has completely decupled from the national economy and its data gathering systems? That&apos;s a whole other shadow economy.

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• JA

  @JackC-v8h · 1 day ago

  I love these China &quot;experts&quot;. Not a single one speaks Mandarin, but they are subject &quot;experts&quot;. Makes you wonder how the Iran war went so wrong, with these brilliant minds in charge.

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• AK

  @akaruimiraihayakukoi · 1 day ago

  China is jealous of Western countries, Western countries do not understand the awesomeness of jealousy

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• LA

  @lagomac · 2 days ago

  If the Chinese leadership believes that AI will make market information superfluous, then they are falling into the same trap that Soviet economists did when computing began to become increasingly enmeshed in economies during the Cold War.<br><br>The assumption was that resource allocation could be carried out without the market. But computers don&apos;t solve the problem, because the competitive market process is itself part of what produces the information required for economic calculation.<br><br>Ultimately, AI can only interpret data that it is aware of and that exists within its databases. It does not follow that AI can replace the institutional process by which decentralized actors discover information, establish opportunity costs, and generate prices.<br><br>If AI is what the CCP is hitching its wagon to in order to address its vast macroeconomic misallocation, it won&apos;t get very far at all.

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• AL

  @alvinseah5423 · 1 day ago

  Excellent discussion, I like the way the moderators push back against Logan by asking tough questions.<br>My thoughts are: analysis needs to start from macro level then filter down to intermediate and the to micro level. Nobody can doubt that at macro level, the international community is the most important factor, followed by tech advances. For international issues, Trump is the biggest factor. Any analysis that doesn&apos;t factor in Trumpian disruption is pointless. Trump&apos;s 1st term was in 2008, Xi dealt with him directly, and after that put in measures to deprioritize growth and prioritize national resilience instead. Hence the building up of enormous oil reserves, rare earth dominance, etc, all of which can be seen in retrospect to be absolutely foresighted, brilliant plays.<br>As you say, terrorism kept Bush up at night, jobs kept Hu up at night, so what keeps Xi up at night? It&apos;s not GDP growth or jobs for sure, it&apos;s the threat that Trump is gonna do something unexpected.<br>2nd macro issue is the tech environment. AI and maybe robotics came out of nowhere in 2024 or so. Yet China is absolutely avant garde for AI. Compare Europeans or Japanese, nowhere to be found in AI space. Again that speaks to a certain degree of foresight in the system that enabled China keeping pace with US in the AI space.

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• BE

  @BeelP. · 1 day ago

  Gordon Chang&apos;s broken clock prediction is being replicated here😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂

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• PE

  @Peter-w4j9z · 11 hours ago (edited)

  So supply chain dominance allows China to sustain export growth way past what a conventional theory might might say...<br><br><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IdLPBmtY5ZE&amp;t=1363">22:43</a>: Logan Wright introduces the topic of how China became a dominant force in global metals and minerals processing<br>and then:<br><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IdLPBmtY5ZE&amp;t=1634">27:14</a> &nbsp;If you don&apos;t want my growing exports, I&apos;m going to cut off your supplies of all the critical inputs you need for your remaining industry. <br>So supply chain dominance allows China to sustain export growth way past what a conventional theory might might say...