Leasing vs Buying a Car — The Real Math Over 9 Years

NEW EPISODE: $500 a Month Car vs $500 a Month Invested, the real math over 20 years: $500 a Month Car vs $500 a Month Invested.... Danny and Marcus want the same $45,000 car. Marcus buys it with a five-year loan. Danny leases it — three cars, three sets of keys, nine years. For the first three and a half years Danny is winning, and at the end of year one Marcus owes more on his car than it's worth. Then, in month forty-two, the lines cross, and they never cross back. Nine years in the gap is $24,448 — and three quarters of it is built in a stretch where nobody does anything at all. This is the whole thing, built from the parts: what's actually inside a lease payment, why the payment is so low (two separate subsidies, both real money), and the one question that decides it for you. FREE CALCULATOR — FIND YOUR OWN CROSSOVER MONTH Put in your own car price, rate, residual and how long you'd keep it. It tells you which side of the line you're on. → https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/... CHAPTERS 0:00 The two men and the crossing lines 0:48 Meet Marcus and Danny 1:56 What is actually inside a lease payment 3:07 Marcus's loan and the $259 gap 3:51 Year one - Marcus is underwater 4:37 Two subsidies that make leasing look cheap 5:37 Year three - leasing genuinely wins here 6:23 Month 42 - the crossover 7:15 Year five - the payment stops 7:48 Years six to nine - the boring stretch 8:41 Year nine - the final numbers 9:23 Everything we gave the lease 10:33 The honest answer - how long will you keep it? 11:36 The best car on the whole graph 12:06 The free calculator THE ASSUMPTIONS, IN FULL $45,000 car · 6% sales tax · $0 down on BOTH sides · buyer: 60-month loan at 6.39% (Experian Q1 2026 average) · lessee: three 36-month leases, 60% residual, 0.00150 money factor, $895 acquisition, $395 disposition, +$200/yr insurance · 12,000 miles a year · 7% market return on every dollar either man saves · buyer pays all out-of-warranty upkeep, lessee pays none. Every one of those choices favours leasing, and leasing still loses by $24,448. The lease payment is held flat for nine years, which never happens — at 3% car price inflation the gap is $31,389. At 15,000 miles a year it's $31,198. SOURCES Experian, State of the Automotive Finance Market, Q1 2026 (average new-car rate 6.39%) Experian / Bankrate / LendingTree — average US new-car and lease payments, 2026 iSeeCars — 5-year depreciation study, 2026 (average 41.8%) CarEdge — Consumer's Guide to Leasing, 2026 (residuals, money factors) Lease End — end-of-lease return costs (disposition, mileage overage) Not financial advice. It's arithmetic, and the calculator shows its working. EVERY EPISODE ON THIS CHANNEL Emergency Fund vs No Emergency Fund, the real math over 10 years: Emergency Fund vs No Emergency Fund. The R... New Truck vs Used Truck, the real math over 10 years: New Truck vs Used Truck — The Real Math Ov... 15-Year vs 30-Year Mortgage, and the $97,000 nobody quotes: 15-Year vs 30-Year Mortgage — The Real Mat... Roth vs Traditional 401(k), 33 years, one tax bill: Roth vs Traditional 401(k) — The Real Math... Social Security at 62 vs 70, and why the break-even age is not 80: Social Security at 62 vs 70 — The Break-Ev... Paying off your mortgage early vs investing the difference: Paying Off Your Mortgage Early vs Investin... Rent vs Buy a House, the real math over 20 years: Rent vs Buy a House — The Real Math Over 2... One decision. Two paths. The real math.