An Energy Shock and Rate Hikes Could Mean a 2022 Style Bear Market | Eric Wallerstein | Clocktower

Comments · 17

• MO

  @Monetary-Matters · 7 days ago · pinned

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• PR

  @ProcopioEquity · 6 days ago

  One thing I&apos;d add on the 2022 comparison: back then credit spreads widened alongside the equity drawdown. This time the damage sits in the businesses that live on rates, like consumer lending, regional banks, utilities and mortgage finance, while high yield hasn&apos;t cracked. If a policy mistake is in the making, I suspect high yield starting to lag would show it before the index does.

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• ES

  @espiritu_az · 7 days ago

  No one is getting a “$5000 stimi check” regardless of what party takes mid-terms. &nbsp;More Trump lies (DOGE check, Tariff check, etc). &nbsp;GOP wrecks the economy, pundits then say if Dems are elected the sky is falling. &nbsp;stfu.

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• BA

  @BatmanBoss · 7 days ago

  Thanks 🙏

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• AC

  @actuariallurker9650 · 3 days ago

  Perhaps the state of the world in 2002 WAS the long term normal neutral position? I’m old enough to remember 8% 10 20 and 30 year rates in the early 90s

• LI

  @libertysprings2244 · 7 days ago (edited)

  My guess it just the market expected Warsh to be more dovish so they leveraged everything up along the curve but then it all had to unwind quick.<br>As for energy prices I wish the fed would see that inflation-adjusted energy prices are actually really low compared to 2008.

• KW

  @kwbnsika · 7 days ago (edited)

  I’ve lost my job because my company wanted to ape into building data centers for HPC so I don’t know what he’s talking about. <br>Also, we’re almost a year into this attack on Iran and the NASDAQ touched ATHs the other day

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• JA

  @jammasterJM · 6 days ago

  No has lost their job due to AI? You can&apos;t be f&apos;ing serious. Since 2022 tech CEOs have used AI as an excuse to layoff people off. My head hurts

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• AC

  @actuariallurker9650 · 3 days ago

  Oil won’t be $70 for 3-5 years given the combination of Ukraine knocking out 35% of Russian production and Hormuz closed. This war won’t end until Democrats pull funding in January after winning back the House and Senate

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• AC

  @actuariallurker9650 · 3 days ago

  Why would anyone restore 1950s era heavy industry- at least with humans- they might mimic Japan and do it with robotics

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• AV

  @avi6819 · 7 days ago

  I find it to be a bit of a red flag when the &quot;Chief Macro Strategist&quot; claims he cant afford a home...who are you trying to kid dude?

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• KA

  @karlbork6039 · 7 days ago

  Like

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