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Could Bond Yields Break the Stock Market? | Big Take

51K views · Sep 28, 2026 · News & Politics

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Comments · 54

@eestileib9980 · 1 day ago
It's almost like making taxes optional for the people with all the money blows your budget... But nobody on Bloomberg will ever say that.
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@readyready-u8j · 1 day ago
You slash taxes and then wage a war, what is happening?
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@Sauvez_nos_ames · 1 day ago
David twisted himself in knots not to implicate the policies of this admin for the quagmire that we are now finding ourselves. Zero credibility
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@NylaChampion-v6v · 22 hours ago
I used to focus entirely on my next trade. Now I’m thinking more about long-term goals, retirement, and building sustainable financial habits. Learning from a mentor helped me understand why patience and discipline matter so much in trading.
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@CornPopWasAGoodDude · 1 day ago
The economy isn’t still hot since COVID stimulus. Inflation is still hot. There’s a big difference.
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@MiguelGomezMountainRunner · 1 day ago (edited)
Yields are spiking because hedge funds and banks are selling long term bonds to get cash to prop up failing AI stocks. Look at the timing between bond yield spikes and trading volumes of AI stocks. They can't afford to let them fall because it will bring down everything.
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@kenvalenti5414 · 1 day ago
Record growth. AKA how well our corporate monopolies are exploiting the working class, funneling profits to the wealthy.
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@MarekKolenda-l3o · 1 day ago
0% growth in stock market in next few years
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@markmap4677 · 1 day ago
It's not necessarily an "absolute" yield level of any single duration asset that has identified trouble for stocks. Rather, evidence shows that structural stock market declines have been accompanied by/in proximity to Treasury "yield spread inversions". Since 1950, 12 month periods of stock market risk have been identified by the alignment of 4 empirically defined variables : a) the S&P 500 price residing below its 10 period moving average (monthly basis) value on "June 30th"or "July 31" b) the YTD S&P500 return being negative into June 30th / July 31 c) variables a & b falling within "Presidential term years" 1, 3, or 4   ** d) the 3 month T bill yield being higher than the 10 year Treasury note yield (yield spread inversion) within 24 month proximity to variables a, b, & c Signaling record : 12 month period    S&P500 return  10 yr bond rtn 7/1969 - 6/1970 -22.8%  -3.7% 7/1973 - 6/1974 -14.5%   1.2% 8/1981 - 7/1982 -13.2%   20.1% 7/2001 - 6/2002 -18.0%   5.6% 7/2008 - 6/2009 -26.2%   6.9% ** 2nd or Mid term years are exempt from the process as their forward 12 & 24 month July - June returns have been predominately positive. Shown below are 24 month returns starting from July of 2nd or mid term years of the Presidential term : July of-June of  S&P500 return 1934 1936 +66% 1938 1940 -4.5% 1942 1944 +74.7% 1946 1948 +0.9% 1950 1952 +62.0% 1954 1956 +75.0% 1958 1960 +34.5% 1962 1964 +59.4% 1966 1968 +25.5% 1970 1972 +57.1% 1974 1976 +32.3% 1978 1980 +33.1% 1982 1984 +53.6% 1986 1988 +16.5% 1990 1992 +21.8% 1994 1996 +58.9% 1998 2000 +31.6% 2002 2004 +19.4% 2006 2008 +4.8% 2010 2012 +37.8% 2014 2016 +11.7% 2018 2020 +18.7% 2022 2024 +49.0% 2026 2028 ? avg      +36.5% And even in the 1920s, St. Louis Fed data suggests a yield spread inversion within a 24 month proximity to the July 1931 - June 1932 period ( going into June 30th 1931 the YTD S&P index return was negative, the S&P index price was below its moving average, and 1931 was a 3rd Presidential term cycle year ). 7/1931 - 6/1932     -66%  3.7% So in light of the high odds of a positive market return occurring over this 12 - 24 month Mid term year period discussed, and a Treasury yield spread that has been normal since Dec 2024 ( although the Fed has starting raising rates ), it's unlikely that a meaningful market decline will be signaled anytime soon. Read "Identifying Periods of Risk in the Stock Market" https://tinyurl.com/y67r62xd .
@chrisswazey · 1 day ago
Rates have really shot up, the bond market wasn't prepared. Remember silicon valley Bank holding long term bonds at 1.5% in 2022 and having to pay deposits nearly double that.😮
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@laurencedahlmer2739 · 1 day ago
No major crisis? What rock are you living under?
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@makedredd299 · 1 day ago
I declare Force Majeure on the bond yields!