The Math Behind the Unluckiest Moments in all of Pokémon

Comments · 4.3K

• HU

  @Hutch2Much · 3 years ago · pinned

  idk how to describe it but this guy looks like kraft mac and cheese

  15K

• SI

  @Signtist9798 · 3 years ago

  I love how the safari zone guy was already realizing how crazy improbable it was well before even the halfway mark.

  4.4K

• RU

  @RunnerGang1997 · 2 years ago

  That last clip is so stastically unlikely I'd bet $1000 that there's an unknown game mechanic to explain why he didn't run into any encounters versus the reality that he just did what he did.

  3.5K

• LO

  @LordGame2222 · 2 years ago

  the chances of that safari zone no encounter streak are so astronomically low that I feel it is SIGNIFICANTLY more statistically likely that there was some hiccup in the game's backend causing the encounters to not fire than it is that the game was calculating the encounter chance correctly the entire time

  1.6K

• BR

  @BroudbrunMusicMerge · 3 years ago

  And yet the raw odds of that final event is still 7 billion times more likely than the raw odds of Dream's infamous speedrun

  2.7K

• TH

  @ThatKidTitan · 3 years ago

  As a statistics PhD student, this was a very satisfying watch! You explained probability spaces better than some professors would 😂

  6.6K

• LU

  @LunarWing6214 · 2 years ago

  I spent 10 years attempting to catch a feebas in my pokemon sapphire. I would spend 1-2 hours a day 3-4 days a week just fishing in the god damn river. I still have nightmares about it. But on a bored ass day at work (in a call centre) I was fishing while on call with an angry customer. Just letting him rant away, when FINALLY a feebas appeared in my face! I abruptly put this guy on hold to put all my effort in to catching it! the dude was very pissed off at me but I did not care! My quest to finish my sapphire pokedex was over!

  746

• AS

  @AskiFin · 1 year ago

  “Scientists have calculated that the chances of something so patently absurd actually existing are millions to one.<br>But magicians have calculated that million-to-one chances crop up nine times out of ten.” ― Terry Pratchett, Mort

  32

• SH

  @ShinyIvyLeaves · 3 years ago

  How have NONE of my probability &amp; statistics teachers used that square probability space visual? That is so helpful!!!

  722

• WI

  @Wilsonbros123 · 3 years ago

  The last clip has to be even more significant than that, because when you change directions whether you’re moving through a tile or not it also registers as an opportunity for an encounter. So when he’s switching directions walking back and forth it’s adding to the already substantial count of 230+

  705

• MS

  @MStrong95 · 3 years ago (edited)

  Someone should make the most unlucky TAS possible for each Pokemon game... Like you still beat the game very fast but just everything that can go wrong does

  812

• DO

  @Donut-ke4vb · 2 years ago

  Fun fact, on one play through of Pokémon FireRed when I was a kid, I went to catch Mewtwo. This was my third save, and I decided I wanted all my legendaries in regular poke balls. So, when I got to Mewtwo, I just threw a poke ball on the first turn for kicks and giggles. It worked. Watching this video encouraged me to run that moment through the catch rate calculator, to find out my luck was a 0.416% chance. That was my luckiest moment playing Pokémon, and those odds still don’t come close to the caterpie incident😂

  268