미국채가 흔들릴 때 엔 캐리까지 청산되면… - 김명실 연구위원 (iM증권)

#Japan #GovernmentBondYields #Yen #YenCarryTrade #USA #GovernmentBonds #Recession #LongTermRateRates #FiscalDeficit #Stablecoin #Buyback #Inflation #OverseasInvestment #Bonds #WGBI #ProfessorParkJungHo [Content summarized via AI] 🇺🇸 High Interest Rates Originating from the US: No Longer Just a 'Fed's' Problem While concerns are growing about the unwinding of the Yen Carry Trade due to Japan's rising interest rates and the strengthening yen, this does not immediately lead to a massive sell-off of US Treasury bonds. The bigger issues are the widening US fiscal deficit and increased Treasury bond issuance, anxieties over war and inflation, and the weakening demand from overseas funds, such as those from Japan and China, which previously actively purchased US Treasury bonds. As the Fed enters quantitative tightening, powerful buyers of Treasury bonds have disappeared, resulting in a high 'term premium' attached to US long-term bonds. Analysis suggests that while the US Treasury is expanding its Treasury bond buybacks, it is difficult to resolve the fundamental supply problem because the structure involves purchasing existing bonds through the issuance of new ones. In Korea as well, the burden on long-term interest rates is growing as the possibility of a benchmark interest rate hike, expansionary fiscal policy, and increased government bond issuance overlap. Ultimately, future interest rates are likely to be influenced more significantly by government fiscal policy, government bond supply and demand, war and inflation, and investor confidence, in addition to the central bank's benchmark rate. For individual investors, short-term bonds with maturities of three years or less are currently relatively more advantageous than long-term bonds, and a strategy of purchasing long-term bonds in installments whenever interest rates rise significantly in the future is suggested. ⏱️ Timecode 00:36 | Will Concerns Over Yen Carry Unwinding Spread to Global Financial Markets? 05:25 | The Real Reason US Long-Term Interest Rates Aren't Falling 10:17 | Who Will Buy US Treasury Bonds That Japan and China Are Buying Less Of? 15:13 | Why US Treasury 'Bond Buybacks' Are Insufficient 21:46 | Conditions Necessary for US Long-Term Interest Rates to Fall 27:05 | Korea Cannot Be Safe Either... Expansionary Fiscal Policy and Government Bond Supply Burden 38:20 | Prolonged High Interest Rates and Bond Investment Strategies for Individual Investors 💡 Key Point in One Line 🔥 The current high interest rates are not merely a matter of central bank interest rates; rather, they are a ‘structural high interest rate’ issue created by the confluence of fiscal expansion in the U.S. and Korea, increased government bond supply, and weakening demand. ※ Host: Park Jung-ho, Professor at Myongji University ◈ Broadcast Schedule YouTube: Daily 10:30 AM – 11:20 AM Radio: MBC Standard FM Daily 10:05 PM – 11:00 PM