Has the Ukraine War Turned Against Putin?

After more than four years of war, one of the leading analysts of the Russia-Ukraine conflict says the battlefield may finally be shifting against Vladimir Putin. Michael Kofman, fresh off a trip to Ukraine's frontlines, joins Jake Sullivan and Jon Finer to explain why Russia's offensive has stalled, why Ukraine may be in its strongest position since 2023, and how drones have transformed the war. Kofman argues that Moscow's strategy of grinding advances and massive attrition is producing diminishing returns, while Ukraine's investment in drone warfare, battlefield innovation, and decentralized defense production is beginning to pay off. The conversation explores whether Russia can sustain its current campaign, why Ukraine's biggest challenge may now be air defense rather than the front lines, and what it would take to convince Russia that the war has become futile. They also discuss the prospects for a ceasefire, the risk of Russian escalation against NATO, and what role the United States and Europe should play in shaping the endgame of the war. Topics covered: Who is actually winning the war in Ukraine? How drones have changed the battlefield Whether Russia can be convinced to end the war A deep dive into Ukraine, Russia, Vladimir Putin, drone warfare, NATO, ceasefire negotiations, military strategy, European security, and the future of the Russia-Ukraine war. Subscribe to The Long Game on Substack: https://thelonggame.substack.com/ for exclusive video content, transcripts, and more. This week, paid subscribers will receive a special mailbag segment where Jake and Jon answer listener questions. Follow The Long Game on socials: Instagram: Instagram: podlonggame TikTok: TikTok: podlonggame New episodes drop weekly — follow The Long Game on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts: https://pod.link/1850526014 Chapter Titles: 0:00 — Introduction: Michael Kofman on the Russia-Ukraine War 3:33 — Who Is Winning the War? 4:44 — How Kofman Assesses the Frontlines 10:21 — Why Ukraine Is in Its Strongest Position Since 2023 13:03 — Russia’s Casualties, Recruitment Problems, and Stalled Offensive 16:00 — How Ukraine Adapted to Russia’s Infiltration Tactics 23:03 — Why the War Has Been So Hard to Predict 27:04 — Ukraine’s Drone Revolution and Defense Innovation 38:41 — Unmanned Ground Vehicles and the Future of Combat 49:14 — Russia, NATO, and the Risk of Gray-Zone Escalation 53:06 — What Would It Take to End the War? 1:01:10 — Jake and Jon Reflect on Kofman’s Analysis Photo credits: A Ukrainian soldier prepares the Bliskavka attack drone to strike Russian positions in the direction of Kostiantynivka, Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine on May 15, 2026. (Photo by Diego Herrera Carcedo/Anadolu via Getty Images) A firefighter puts out a fire at a car dealership following massive Russian missile and drone strikes on Kyiv on June 2, 2026, amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine. (Photo by Tetiana DZHAFAROVA / AFP via Getty Images) #ukraine #RussiaUkraineWar #UkraineWar #Russia #Putin #NATO #DroneWarfare #ForeignPolicy #NationalSecurity #MichaelKofman