Sind die Politiker verrückt – oder was steckt dahinter?

The world of elites often differs dramatically from the everyday reality of the rest of us. Here, I describe nine effects that lead politicians and CEOs to make decisions that the rest of us can only find absurd. ►To the course on game-theoretic negotiation: https://www.rieck-verlag.de/verhandlu... -------------------------- ►STOP: Please do not send emails to my university address! This address is exclusively for official business. ------------------------ Want to become a channel member? I'd love that: @profrieck Want a great video every week? Then click here: https://www.youtube.com/c/ProfRieck?s... -------------------------- ►FURTHER INFORMATION FROM TEAM RIECK: Foundations Principal-Agent Information Asymmetry: The management level (principal) and their advisors (agent) have different objectives. The agent engages in strategic agenda-setting. Information filtering is mathematically inevitable, as the agent optimizes their output to the principal's preferences in order to secure their own status. The principal becomes a blind information taker. Signaling and Asymmetric Cost Externalization: "Luxury beliefs" operate as elitist signaling games (according to Spence). The sender transmits a costly signal to mark their status. The functional peculiarity: The majority of the signal's costs are externalized to an out-group. The signal remains inexpensive for the sender, but enforces social barriers because the same signal would be expensive for the out-group. Bayesian updating vacuum: Sanctioning critical voices as snipers destroys the iterative learning process. The decision-maker's a priori probabilities are no longer corrected by negative feedback input. The system converges into an absorbing state of perfect error expectation. Target substitution: A mechanism for cognitive dissonance reduction. If the primary goal cannot be achieved, preferences are adjusted. The formal model of utility maximization remains intact; only the variables of the objective function are exchanged ex post. Strategic paradoxes Escalation of commitment (dollar auction): Initial strategic misjudgments force subsequent investments. Actors escalate their behavior (e.g., political parties after election defeats) not out of irrationality, but because they would otherwise be punished for the sunk costs already incurred. Icarus Paradox: Past success (e.g., historical generals) can favor future failure if behavior becomes rigid. Exogenous shocks (technological or environmental changes) encounter a rigid behavioral repertoire. Abilene Paradox: The homophily of the group generates collective decisions that can contradict the individual preferences of all group members. The anticipation of a supposed group norm leads to a complete distortion of preferences. Transfer of knowledge Target domain: Machine Learning (Artificial Intelligence). The isolated leadership elite operates structurally similar to a neural network with massive overfitting. The model is calibrated exclusively with highly distorted, homogeneous training data (filtered input from the inner circle, elite bubbles). Within this training environment, the error rate drops to zero; the system is self-confirming. However, when confronted with real, noisy test data (elections, free markets), what it has learned no longer applies. The lack of regularization mechanisms (critical discourse) leads to an unusable model. ------------------------ #profriek #politics #germany Disclaimer: This is an educational channel, not a financial or medical channel. The content of my videos and podcasts is for general information purposes only and is not financial or medical advice, nor is it a personal recommendation. Please always consult multiple independent sources and seek professional advice before making decisions, especially regarding investments or medicine. The opinions expressed do not constitute a call to action. This is not a solicitation to buy or sell any kind of asset, including securities or tangible assets. This is not an invitation to any form of self-treatment or self-diagnosis. Please take this information seriously.