반도체 실적 상관없습니다, 문제는 우리 '눈높이'ㅣ강관우 더프레미어 대표

The US market went up, so why only us? Reasons for the Samsung Electronics & SK Hynix Correction and Key Points to Watch for Micron Earnings 📈 Today's Stock Market Summary Decline in Samsung Electronics & SK Hynix → Index weakness centered on large-cap semiconductor stocks Foreign investors selling both spot and futures → Focus on potential futures position adjustments Many rising stocks despite index decline → Trend different from the overall market weakness Expansion of AI capital investment → Continued interest in semiconductors, power equipment, and IT hardware Micron earnings, PCE inflation, and Fed personnel remarks → Key variables to watch Assessing price pressures by sector amidst strength in medical AI, renewable energy, and financial holding stocks 🔍 Summary of Key Points 1️⃣ Why did the domestic market decline when the US market performed well? During the holiday period, the performance of US memory and storage-related stocks was favorable, but domestically, foreign selling emerged centered on Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. However, it is necessary to distinguish between the index decline and the performance of individual stocks; while large-cap stocks are dragging the index down, there are actually many rising stocks✔ A trend opposite to the large-cap-led bull market of the first half✔ It is difficult to conclude that the entire market has collapsed based solely on the index. Situation 2️⃣ Foreign Selling: Is It a Supply and Demand Issue Rather Than Semiconductor Market Conditions? It suggests the possibility of a "mechanical basket selling" scenario, where investors sell spot stocks along with futures as they realize profits from their recently accumulated long positions. It also examines the possibility that price attractiveness may resurface after the ex-dividend date. Key Interpretation → Rather than immediately linking today's semiconductor correction to a slowdown in market conditions → Check foreign investor supply and demand in both spot and futures markets, as well as changes in positions. 3️⃣ Will AI Investment Continue Even in an Era of High Interest Rates? The AI ​​industry is characterized by the coexistence of companies already generating significant profits and those that must continue large-scale investments in the future. The diagnosis is that short-term stock price volatility may occur as interest rate burdens and growth expectations alternately come into focus. Sector Scenarios by WTI Price Range / $80 Level → Power Equipment, Semiconductors, Defense, Shipbuilding / $70 Level → Securities, Construction, Software, Transportation, Media / $60 Level → Potential Sector Shift to Energy, Secondary Batteries, Chemicals In scenarios where AI capital investment continues to expand, pay attention to the correlation of revenue growth in IT hardware, power equipment, and semiconductors✔ Interpret sectors in conjunction with the market environment rather than determining them solely based on oil price levels✔ Place weight on the sustainability of the AI ​​and semiconductor investment cycles 4️⃣ Micron Earnings: Expectations are More Important Than Numbers Micron's earnings announcement is a major event to confirm the state of the memory market Key Points to Watch → Revenue, Gross Profit Margin, and Next Quarter Guidance → Expansion of HBM4 Mass Production Volume and Next-Generation HBM Shipment Schedule → 2027 Capital Investment Scale → DRAM and NAND Price Trends However, good earnings do not necessarily lead to a rise in stock prices. It is crucial to determine how well heightened market expectations are met. → Positive outlook on the semiconductor cycle and guidance → Even if stock prices fall after earnings announcements, a buy-on-the-dip perspective is suggested if market conditions remain stable. 5️⃣ Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix: The Key to Resolving the Discount Check the forward PER gap between Micron and domestic memory manufacturers. For Samsung Electronics, HBM4 competitiveness and profitability improvement are key → Expanding presence in the HBM market → Rising proportion of high-value-added products → Verifying whether overall profitability and market confidence are restored. Shareholder returns are also an important variable → Pay attention to whether the expansion of free cash flow leads to additional returns → What policies and implementation plans are presented beyond dividends?✔ Verify both earnings growth and shareholder returns together✔ Be wary of the burden of expectations stemming from elevated profit forecasts. 6️⃣ The Spread of AI Agents: Why Focus on Equipment Rather Than Substrates Expansion of AI agent utilization → Expectations that the semiconductor demand base could broaden. While interest continued in PCB and FC-BGA related stocks such as Daeduck Electronics, concerns were raised regarding the pre-pricing of substrate stocks and valuation burdens. Substrates & Components → Growth expectations remain valid, but price lev...