Why Does WAR Disagree with Reality?

Comments · 175

• JW

  @JWhiz · 7 days ago

  My biggest problem with fWAR is that it disregards balls in play entirely. Some pitchers pitch for weak contact and/or ground balls and I feel like fWAR unrightfully punishes those guys and builds up the “3 true outcomes” pitchers even if they don’t perform all that well. I think using fWAR’s formula plus the pitcher specific FRV and some sort of quality of contact metric(s) would be the best way to calculate pitcher WAR

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• UL

  @ultimateo621 · 7 days ago

  FIP WAR is probably better than RA9 WAR for a single year, especially the baseball-reference version that uses drs to grade defense, but both are really flawed. I honestly prefer RA9 WAR for pitchers when I'm looking at their entire career since FIP has the capacity to be consistently wrong (some players outperform or underperform their FIP every year for their entire career) while RA9 WAR regresses to the mean over a long enough career.

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• MA

  @magnusnaisu · 7 days ago

  People like to say war isnt the be all end all, yet when you disagree with war at all they freakout and call you an idiot

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• PA

  @patchenmart3737 · 7 days ago

  Thank you for doing this video I have wondered about this comparison. It’s also seems hard to fully compare these two as they are opposites. Sanchez is a ground ball pitcher and heavily relies on one of the worse defenses in the league (why his 50 inning scoreless streak was even more impressive) and Miz is a strikeout pitcher who just doesn’t allow contact so the defense has basically nothing to do. Sanchez also is a classic workhorse who is pitching more often, deeper into games on a team who can’t afford to rest any of their starters and has a bad bullpen. while Miz pitches less innings and less games but is more dominant while he’s in the game and the Brewers have a better bullpen. So in terms of value, I can see how Sanchez would come out on top even though his run stats are worse. I can also see it the other way as well. Very interesting honestly with two very different pitchers.

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• MY

  @MyLittleWalrus · 7 days ago

  Something I’ve always wondered about pitching stats: why isn’t “wRC+ allowed” a more popular stat? It seems like it would be better than fip or era+

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• TY

  @TylerAven10 · 7 days ago (edited)

  When you get down deep in the weeds of WAR calculations, you start to realize just how many shortcuts are taken where it doesn’t feel necessary, and it’s incredibly bothersome.<br><br>Does anyone ever try to base pitcher WAR off SIERA? I’ve always considered it to be a much more comprehensive peripheral than FIP. <br>For batters we always ask “what’s the value of a single, double, walk, homer, etc.” but we never ask for pitchers “what’s the value of allowing a ground ball, a pop fly, a line drive, a fly ball, etc.”

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• SN

  @snoozerham · 19 hours ago

  Sanchez&apos;s headshot is gorgeous and Miz&apos;s looks like a slice of bread LOOOL

• LA

  @laminatedcake · 2 days ago

  I think if I&apos;m going to evaluate a pitching performance, the one metric I&apos;d use would be expected OPS against. It&apos;s still a bit of a predictive, rather than descriptive stat, but I think it captures every aspect of pitching. Strikeouts are still good, walks and home runs are still bad, but batted balls make an appearance too. Giving up a piss missile of a double down the line is bad, coaxing a soft grounder is good. It should average out over many batters faced to be a consistent metric.

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• DA

  @DataTranslator · 3 days ago

  All models are imperfect, and try to describe reality, but that&apos;s impossible. War is just another instance of a model&apos;s limitations. <br>That is why we have tons of other metrics (models).<br><br>This is like saying that an average disagrees with reality, when what you need to use is the median.

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• AR

  @ArcherHarmony · 7 days ago

  I’m not a fan of ignoring defense for a pitcher. If you’re a pitch to contact guy and 90% or your ABs are ending with hard contact that stays in the park, but you occasionally strike someone out, you could end up looking like a much better pitcher than you really are. <br><br>You don’t control how the defense handles a play, but you are the one who allowed a ball in play, and if you do it a lot, then it may be more important than your FIP.

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• LO

  @LoveAlwaysTheAnswer · 7 days ago

  This is incredibly helpful! Well done sir!

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• KO

  @komickaze85 · 2 days ago (edited)

  I don&apos;t know if you mentioned this at the end, but maybe combine the two WAR&apos;s in like an average or something because B-R and Fangraphs both measure different things that are important. By the way, first time watching this channel. I&apos;ve never seen what you look like until now. Great video. Maybe we could all try to figure out the perfect WAR together.