US Midyear Outlook: Geopolitical Shocks, the New Fed Era, and Growth

As a newly installed chairman takes the helm of the Federal Reserve, US monetary policy remains uncertain amid a soft inflation print and escalating tensions in the Middle East. David Mericle, chief US economist in Goldman Sachs Research, forecasts the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged this year before cutting its policy rate in 2027. He also unpacks the factors driving US inflation, highlights the surprising resilience of the US labor market, and explains why he expects US GDP to expand around 2% this year. Recorded on July 20, 2026. [00:00] Introduction [00:32] Economy: Hits and Misses [01:54] Inflation: Turning Point? [04:35] Fed Policy Outlook [07:56] Fed Balance Sheet Debate [10:05] Forward Guidance Changes [13:49] Labor Market Resilience [15:04] Growth Forecast Ahead [16:49] Key Risks Ahead The opinions and views expressed herein are as of the date of publication, subject to change without notice, and may not necessarily reflect the institutional views of Goldman Sachs or its affiliates. The material provided is intended for informational purposes only, and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation from any Goldman Sachs entity to take any particular action, or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any securities or financial products. This material may contain forward-looking statements. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Goldman Sachs nor any of its affiliates make any representations or warranties, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the statements or information contained herein and disclaim any liability whatsoever for reliance on such information for any purpose. Each name of a third-party organization mentioned is the property of the company to which it relates, is used here strictly for informational and identification purposes only and is not used to imply any ownership or license rights between any such company and Goldman Sachs. A transcript is provided for convenience and may differ from the original video or audio content. Goldman Sachs is not responsible for any errors in the transcript. This material should not be copied, distributed, published, or reproduced in whole or in part or disclosed by any recipient to any other person without the express written consent of Goldman Sachs. Disclosures applicable to research with respect to issuers, if any, mentioned herein are available through your Goldman Sachs representative or at ⁠http://www.gs.com/research/hedge.html⁠ Goldman Sachs does not endorse any candidate or any political party. Copyright 2026. All rights reserved. Show less